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The big loser was rock, which landed only one act in the Top 10 (Coldplay finished third).

Usher, the R&B singer with massive charisma on stage, is considered such a sure-fire property that 17 of the 21 executives placed him in their Top 10. Six declared him their first choice.

"He could be the Michael Jackson of this decade," says a label head, referring to Jackson's glory years. "His 'Confessions' album sold 9 million copies in the U.S. and that's almost 'Thriller'-type numbers in this era of downloading and declining sales."

Executives were almost as high on Keys, the New York singer-songwriter who is often compared to Stevie Wonder and Prince. Fifteen of the executives named her as one of the 10 hottest properties. Two listed her first. That's the strongest showing ever for a female artist on the Pop Power List, which has been assembled four times since 1985.

"Alicia has the talent to make any type of record she wants," said one label head. "She can do a jazz album, a pop album, a Broadway album and make it sound fresh and inspired."

Not everyone thinks Eminem's days are numbered. Nine executives thought so highly of Eminem's future that they ranked him among their top three artists. Yet 10 executives didn't put him anywhere in their Top 10, leaving him to finish fourth overall. The rest of the Top 10, in order: Beyoncé, Justin Timberlake, OutKast, 50 Cent, Kanye West and Dr. Dre.

These artists also appeared on more than three lists: Josh Groban, Green Day, U2, No Doubt/Gwen Stefani, Linkin Park, Maroon 5 and John Legend.

During the separate interviews, executives mentioned time and again the difficulty of making decisions during a time in pop in which fan loyalty seems as outdated as grunge guitars.

"There are no guarantees anymore," one executive said. "But as long as I have to worry, I'd rather worry with Usher and Alicia Keys on my roster."

Life in the fast lane

Think of the record industry as the racy cousin of the movie business — a world where things move so fast that the film machinations appear downright glacial.

An unknown can walk into a record company with a catchy song and get signed in less time than it takes film executives to watch their latest release, much less agonize for months over script changes and then go on location, hoping the weather cooperates.

Success for music executives is based on recognizing potential, and it's not easy. Some of the biggest acts ever — including the Beatles, U2 and Garth Brooks — were rejected repeatedly before someone finally took a chance on them.

Correct decisions can mean hundreds of millions in record sales; wrong ones can mean tens of millions in wasted contract bonuses, promotional videos and marketing expenses.

Executives say their jobs are more difficult than ever because of a bottom-line consciousness at conglomerates that encourages labels to sign acts that can deliver immediate sales.

Things are so bad that some executives hold their breath every time they release an album — even one by a proven bestseller. Artists' careers have long risen and fallen with each new release, but it has never been more foolish to use ink when writing executive names and titles in your Rolodex.

The cost of signing and promoting artists is so high labels can no longer afford the luxury of spending years nurturing acts who need three or four albums to develop their craft and to build their audience — the way Columbia did in the '70s with Bruce Springsteen and Island did in the '80s with U2.

Now, it's often one album and out the door unless you have a hit, because it can cost a major label $2 million to $5 million every time it releases a new album. When labels have 40 to 60 acts on the roster, that tab escalates rapidly.

"There would be no U2 the way things are now," Bono said when inducting Springsteen into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in March, talking about the lack of interest in career development.

Much of the excitement over Usher, Keys and Coldplay is because they are relatively young artists with substance and the ability to deliver hits.

They each score highly on most of the qualities that the executives say are important in gauging success in the music business: They are coming off hot albums, have global appeal, put on strong live shows and, crucially, make music that appeals to today's main pop-radio formats. Radio airplay continues to be the single most important factor in generating massive sales.

"Usher is the quintessential artist for today's pop market," one executive said. "He's got almost no negatives. He's got the talent, the drive, the competitiveness. Girls love him, boys love him. He's the perfect date artist."

It's a tribute to Usher's high standing that one of the strongest compliments an executive could apply to Keys is that she is like a "female Usher."

"She's an undeniable talent, a great performer who is driven and seems to be cool-headed," the executive added. "She makes music that isn't contrived or trite. She is likely to last for years."

Support for the pair was so widespread that it was surprising when one executive left one off his Top 10 list. Asked about it, he looked sheepish. "To be honest, I forgot her when I was looking over the list. Is it too late to add her?"

Keeping it real (secret)

To assist executives in thinking about possible Top 10 choices, I gave each a list of 100 or so of today's bestsellers, but they were free to vote for anyone on or off the list. Then I asked why they voted for their favorites and why they passed on other high-profile artists. And finally, when it was all over, I destroyed the tapes. I didn't want the responsibility of them falling into the wrong hands.

(Imagine the embarrassment if artists overheard some of the comments. They'd be shocked at how little some of their bosses think of their commercial future. On the other end of the scale, some artists were so highly praised that their attorneys would have lots of ammunition to march into the executives' offices and demand the artists' contracts be sweetened.)

The top artists on the list clearly benefited from being in the glow of recent albums that were both critical and commercial knockouts. Usher's "Confessions" is a frequently compelling look at sexual temptation, consequence and regret. Keys' "The Diary of Alicia Keys" was a marvelous updating of the Motown R&B-pop tradition, while Coldplay's "X&Y" contains some of the most gorgeous love songs in ages.

Many of the executives grew up on rock 'n' roll and said they were saddened they couldn't find more room on their lists for rock artists. Though several groups, including the Red Hot Chili Peppers, have generated massive sales totals in recent years, only Coldplay, U2, Linkin Park, Maroon 5 and Green Day made more than three Top 10 lists.

"Rock has really been hurt by the new reality in our world," said one executive, whose list included only two rock acts. "It's is the most stolen, pirated, whatever you want to say, genre we have now. Whatever you think you could sell with a rock album, you have to cut it by a third."

Coldplay was the only rock group that executives across the board saw being able to match those numbers. The "new U2" tag came up often in the interviews.

The comparison is far from perfect. Coldplay doesn't have the thematic range and depth or sheer musical originality of U2, but the group's best songs have a wonderfully warm, engaging feel that makes it acceptable on mainstream radio.

"I just thank the pop-music gods that there is a band like Coldplay," one executive said. "They play mainstream pop-rock that gets on the radio and is lovely without being fluffy."

Others warn against being too focused on genres. "When I think about signing an act, I don't ask myself, 'Is this hip-hop or rock?' " the label head said. "I look at the artist's strengths.

"It's not hip-hop or rock that sells a ton of records, it's great artists or great personalities that do. Garth Brooks didn't just sell millions of records because he was a country artist, but because he was Garth Brooks. If Eminem had grown up listening to rock rather than hip-hop, my guess is he would have sold just as many albums."

Ultimately, most executives agree, you have to go with your gut in signing acts — your commercial gut. "The biggest mistake," one executive warns, "is just signing acts you like. You've got to remember, the goal is to sell records."

If you love an act but don't think he can sell a lot, let someone else sign him, the exec advises.

"That way you can enjoy his album and let someone else worry about whether it's going to help them reach their third-quarter numbers."