http://www.usatoday.com/life/music/...sts-fight_x.htm
Fall's superabundance of superstars is rushing in to rescue the music industry's sagging bottom line. Or maybe not.
Year after year, the record business unleashes its fall harvest in hopes of reaping record revenues from holiday spenders. Statistics suggest the outdated strategy is backfiring. For fans, it means slim pickings during earlier seasons and a year-end glut too dense to process.
"The last four months always get congested," says Geoff Mayfield, Billboard director of charts. "It's always foolhardy to hope the bevy of strong releases at the end of the year will save the day, because if you look back, you find bushels of high-profile releases in the prior year, too."
The fall surplus seems especially heavy because the year's lopsided schedule generated no significant traffic-builders in the first eight months, he says. In recent cycles, Mariah Carey, 50 Cent, Usher and Norah Jones drove sales early in the year. In the past decade, each year's best seller arrived no later than Memorial Day.
Though digital sales are up this year, album sales trail 2005 by 5%. New titles by Beyoncé, Janet Jackson, Justin Timberlake, My Chemical Romance, Ludacris, John Legend, Snoop Dogg, American Idol alumni and scores of others are expected to soar, just not enough to push 2006 into growth territory.
"It's naive to think this year's high-profile parade will be any stronger than last year's," Mayfield says, pointing to the many 2005 late arrivals who made top 10 debuts, including Kanye West, Brooks & Dunn, Alicia Keys, Destiny's Child, Madonna and Carrie Underwood.
"You had something for everyone," he says. "Based on previous experience, I don't expect the releases coming to market now to close the gap," he says. "The best we can hope for is that the final quarter will be flat. I'd love to be wrong about that."
Nielsen SoundScan data show that 70% of holiday-period sales are for CDs not released in the fourth quarter and that final-quarter sales account for only 8% of a year's total.
"It's just criminal to go through July and August without adequate releases and then see this avalanche," says John Marmaduke, chairman/CEO of Hastings Entertainment. "Our customers walked out of our stores empty-handed during the drought. To stack it all in one quarter is silly."
The misguided practice, which results in worthy music getting crushed in the stampede, "is driven by a lack of research, old habits and somewhat of a fear factor," Marmaduke says. "The industry hasn't noticed that Christmas as a percentage of total sales has declined significantly. Customers want entertainment 365 days a year."
This season's profusion of CDs means stiffer competition for limited fixture space, promotion budgets, playlist slots and, of course, consumer dollars. Music also competes with DVDs and video games, which often get bigger marketing launches. As holidays loom, consumers often are simply too busy to browse the CD bins.
"It's an active social season," he says. There are restraints on everyone's time. "We see the highest return rate and the lowest percentage of new acts breaking out because customers are preoccupied. A lot of great music never gets a chance. Christmas is overblown."
The peak period arrives after Christmas, he says, when kids cash in gift certificates and are more likely to take chances on new artists and trends. Pre-holiday buyers favor chart-toppers and oldies.
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